Nyarugenge District

This project analyzes energy, waste, transportation, and building systems in Kigali’s Nyarugenge District to identify strategies for achieving sustainable urban development. It models three scenarios (Business As Usual, Kigali Icyatsi, and Delulu) using detailed techno-economic and multi-criteria analysis to compare the impacts of renewable energy adoption, electrification, waste-to-energy solutions, and building retrofits.

The Scenarios

The Delulu scenario is the most ambitious, with over 90% energy self-sufficiency achieved through decentralized renewables (solar PV, agrivoltaics, biogas), EV adoption, infrastructure for trams, and comprehensive waste-to-energy integration. This scenario produces the largest reductions in GHG emissions, decreases fossil fuel dependence, and maximizes waste utilization for energy and cooking.
The moderate Kigali Icyatsi scenario combines rooftop solar deployment, increased biogas adoption, and partial EV transition to achieve significant reductions in energy demand, costs, and emissions, while improving grid self-sufficiency.
The Business-As-Usual scenario results in rising demand and emissions, demonstrating the limitations of incremental change.

Methodology

Energy demand modeling for buildings was performed using IDA ICE simulations along with manual calculations for transportation.
Techno-economic optimization used HOMER Pro and MCDA to balance goals such as cost, renewables share, energy self-sufficiency, and waste utilization.
System scenarios were evaluated for total energy demand, renewable fraction, GHG emissions, self-sufficiency, and economic impacts.

Recommendations

The siloed approach to urban energy/waste/transport is insufficient; system integration is essential for substantial emissions reduction and improved quality of life.
Decentralized solutions such as rooftop PV clusters, community-based agrivoltaic cooperatives, and domestic biogas are vital for affordable, resilient clean energy transitions.
Upgrades to building envelopes and electrification of transport and cooking systems are among the most impactful interventions.

Business Model Insights

The ENERVISION model emphasizes community ownership, pay-as-you-go financial models, and capacity building to ensure scalability and inclusion.
Diversified revenue streams (solar, waste-to-energy, EV infrastructure, carbon credits) and partnerships with government, NGOs, and financiers are keys to success.

Limitations

Scenarios rely on idealized assumptions about technology adoption, financing, and institutional capacity. Some practical barriers (stakeholder buy-in, infrastructure, behavioral change) must be resolved for full implementation.
Financial risks, logistical complexity, and external threats (competition, climate variability) need ongoing management.

Conclusion

Cross-sectoral integration of decentralised renewable energy, sustainable transport, advanced building retrofits, and waste valorization is both technically feasible and economically promising for Nyarugenge District’s low-carbon future. The Delulu scenario, while costly, offers the most rapid pathway toward Kigali’s climate and energy goals.

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